Interplay of competition and facilitation in grazing succession by migrant Serengeti herbivores.

Competition, facilitation, and predation offer alternative explanations for successional patterns of migratory herbivores. However, these interactions are difficult to measure, leaving uncertainty about the mechanisms underlying body-size-dependent grazing-and even whether succession occurs at all. We used data from an 8-year camera-trap survey, GPS-collared herbivores, and fecal DNA metabarcoding to analyze the timing, arrival order, and interactions among migratory grazers in Serengeti National Park. Temporal grazing succession is characterized by a "push-pull" dynamic: Competitive grazing nudges zebra ahead of co-migrating wildebeest, whereas grass consumption by these large-bodied migrants attracts trailing, small-bodied gazelle that benefit from facilitation. "Natural experiments" involving intense wildfires and rainfall respectively disrupted and strengthened these effects. Our results highlight a balance between facilitative and competitive forces in co-regulating large-scale ungulate migrations.

Fear of the human "super predator" pervades the South African savanna.

Lions have long been perceived as Africa's, if not the world's, most fearsome terrestrial predator,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 the "king of beasts". Wildlife's fear of humans may, however, be far more powerful and all-prevailing1,10 as recent global surveys show that humans kill prey at much higher rates than other predators,10,11,12 due partly to technologies such as hunting with dogs or guns.11,13,14,15 We comprehensively experimentally tested whether wildlife's fear of humans exceeds even that of lions, by quantifying fear responses1 in the majority of carnivore and ungulate species (n = 19) inhabiting South Africa`s Greater Kruger National Park (GKNP),9,15,16,17 using automated camera-speaker systems9,18 at waterholes during the dry season that broadcast playbacks of humans, lions, hunting sounds (dogs, gunshots) or non-predator controls (birds).9,19,20,21,22 Fear of humans significantly exceeded that of lions throughout the savanna mammal community. As a whole (n = 4,238 independent trials), wildlife were twice as likely to run (p < 0.001) and abandoned waterholes in 40% faster time (p < 0.001) in response to humans than to lions (or hunting sounds). Fully 95% of species ran more from humans than lions (significantly in giraffes, leopards, hyenas, zebras, kudu, warthog, and impala) or abandoned waterholes faster (significantly in rhinoceroses and elephants). Our results greatly strengthen the growing experimental evidence that wildlife worldwide fear the human "super predator" far more than other predators,1,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28 and the very substantial fear of humans demonstrated can be expected to cause considerable ecological impacts,1,6,22,23,24,29,30,31,32,33,34,35 presenting challenges for tourism-dependent conservation,1,36,37 particularly in Africa,38,39 while providing new opportunities to protect some species.1,22,40.

A worldwide perspective on large carnivore attacks on humans.

Large carnivores have long fascinated human societies and have profound influences on ecosystems. However, their conservation represents one of the greatest challenges of our time, particularly where attacks on humans occur. Where human recreational and/or livelihood activities overlap with large carnivore ranges, conflicts can become particularly serious. Two different scenarios are responsible for such overlap: In some regions of the world, increasing human populations lead to extended encroachment into large carnivore ranges, which are subject to increasing contraction, fragmentation, and degradation. In other regions, human and large carnivore populations are expanding, thus exacerbating conflicts, especially in those areas where these species were extirpated and are now returning. We thus face the problem of learning how to live with species that can pose serious threats to humans. We collected a total of 5,440 large carnivore (Felidae, Canidae, and Ursidae; 12 species) attacks worldwide between 1950 and 2019. The number of reported attacks increased over time, especially in lower-income countries. Most attacks (68%) resulted in human injuries, whereas 32% were fatal. Although attack scenarios varied greatly within and among species, as well as in different areas of the world, factors triggering large carnivore attacks on humans largely depend on the socioeconomic context, with people being at risk mainly during recreational activities in high-income countries and during livelihood activities in low-income countries. The specific combination of local socioeconomic and ecological factors is thus a risky mix triggering large carnivore attacks on humans, whose circumstances and frequencies cannot only be ascribed to the animal species. This also implies that effective measures to reduce large carnivore attacks must also consider the diverse local ecological and social contexts.

Oxytocin promotes social proximity and decreases vigilance in groups of African lions.

Oxytocin modulates mammalian social behavior; however, behavioral responses to intranasal oxytocin can vary across species and contexts. The complexity of social interactions increases with group dynamics, and the impacts of oxytocin on both within- and between-group contexts are unknown. We tested the effects of intranasal administration of oxytocin on social and non-social behaviors within in-group and out-group contexts in African lions. We hypothesized that, post intranasal oxytocin administration, lions would be in closer proximity with fellow group members, whereas out-group stimuli could either produce a heightened vigilance response or an attenuated one. Compared to control trials, post oxytocin administration, lions increased their time spent in close proximity (reducing their distance to the nearest neighbor) and decreased vigilance toward out-group intruders (reducing their vocalizations following a roar-playback). These results not only have important implications for understanding the evolution of social circuitry but may also have practical applications for conservation efforts.

Reactive anti-predator behavioral strategy shaped by predator characteristics.

Large mammalian herbivores use a diverse array of strategies to survive predator encounters including flight, grouping, vigilance, warning signals, and fitness indicators. While anti-predator strategies appear to be driven by specific predator traits, no prior studies have rigorously evaluated whether predator hunting characteristics predict reactive anti-predator responses. We experimentally investigated behavioral decisions made by free-ranging impala, wildebeest, and zebra during encounters with model predators with different functional traits. We hypothesized that the choice of response would be driven by a predator's hunting style (i.e., ambush vs. coursing) while the intensity at which the behavior was performed would correlate with predator traits that contribute to the prey's relative risk (i.e., each predator's prey preference, prey-specific capture success, and local predator density). We found that the choice and intensity of anti-predator behaviors were both shaped by hunting style and relative risk factors. All prey species directed longer periods of vigilance towards predators with higher capture success. The decision to flee was the only behavior choice driven by predator characteristics (capture success and hunting style) while intensity of vigilance, frequency of alarm-calling, and flight latency were modulated based on predator hunting strategy and relative risk level. Impala regulated only the intensity of their behaviors, while zebra and wildebeest changed both type and intensity of response based on predator traits. Zebra and impala reacted to multiple components of predation threat, while wildebeest responded solely to capture success. Overall, our findings suggest that certain behaviors potentially facilitate survival under specific contexts and that prey responses may reflect the perceived level of predation risk, suggesting that adaptive functions to reactive anti-predator behaviors may reflect potential trade-offs to their use. The strong influence of prey species identity and social and environmental context suggest that these factors may interact with predator traits to determine the optimal response to immediate predation threat.

The long lives of primates and the 'invariant rate of ageing' hypothesis.

Is it possible to slow the rate of ageing, or do biological constraints limit its plasticity? We test the 'invariant rate of ageing' hypothesis, which posits that the rate of ageing is relatively fixed within species, with a collection of 39 human and nonhuman primate datasets across seven genera. We first recapitulate, in nonhuman primates, the highly regular relationship between life expectancy and lifespan equality seen in humans. We next demonstrate that variation in the rate of ageing within genera is orders of magnitude smaller than variation in pre-adult and age-independent mortality. Finally, we demonstrate that changes in the rate of ageing, but not other mortality parameters, produce striking, species-atypical changes in mortality patterns. Our results support the invariant rate of ageing hypothesis, implying biological constraints on how much the human rate of ageing can be slowed.

Contrasting levels of social distancing between the sexes in lions.

Understanding sexual segregation is crucial to comprehend sociality. A comparative analysis of long-term lion data from Serengeti and Ngorongoro in Tanzania, and Gir in India, reveals that male-female associations are contingent upon male and female group size, prey-size and availability, and the number of prides that each male coalition currently resides. Males maintain proximity with females, whereas females are responsible for segregation except at large kills. Lions feed on the largest prey in Ngorongoro and the smallest in Gir, and females spend the most time with males in Ngorongoro and the least in Gir. Females roar less often in prey-scarce circumstances in Serengeti and throughout the year in Gir possibly to prevent being tracked by males that parasitize on female kills. However, females readily associate with males when available prey is large and abundant. Contrasting availability of resources between Gir and Serengeti/Ngorongoro helps explain the varying degrees of sexual segregation and appears to drive differences in mating systems between these lion populations.

A pan-African spatial assessment of human conflicts with lions and elephants.

African lions (Panthera leo) and African savanna (Loxodonta africana) and forest (L. cyclotis) elephants pose threats to people, crops, and livestock, and are themselves threatened with extinction. Here, we map these human-wildlife conflicts across Africa. Eighty-two percent of sites containing lions and elephants are adjacent to areas with considerable human pressure. Areas at severe risk of conflict (defined as high densities of humans, crops, and cattle) comprise 9% of the perimeter of these species' ranges and are found in 18 countries hosting, respectively, ~ 74% and 41% of African lion and elephant populations. Although a variety of alternative conflict-mitigation strategies could be deployed, we focus on assessing the potential of high-quality mitigation fences. Our spatial and economic assessments suggest that investments in the construction and maintenance of strategically located mitigation fences would be a cost-effective strategy to support local communities, protect people from dangerous wildlife, and prevent further declines in lion and elephant populations.

Contrasting effects of male immigration and rainfall on rank-related patterns of miscarriage in female olive baboons.

In mammalian species with prolonged maternal investment in which high-ranking males gain disproportionate numbers of mating opportunities, males that quickly ascend the hierarchy may benefit from eliminating the dependent offspring of their competitors. In savanna baboons, high-ranking females are the most profitable targets of infanticide or feticide, because their offspring have higher survival rates and their daughters reach sexual maturity at a younger age. However, such patterns may be obscured by environmental stressors that are known to exacerbate fetal losses, especially in lower-ranking females. Using 30 years of data on wild olive baboons (Papio anubis) in Gombe National Park, Tanzania, we found evidence that rapidly-rising immigrant males induced miscarriages in high-ranking females outside of drought conditions. However, miscarriage rates were largely reversed during prolonged periods of low rainfall, suggesting that low-ranking females are particularly vulnerable to low food availability and social instability. Infanticide did not emerge as a recurrent male strategy in this population, likely because of the protective behavior of resident males towards vulnerable juveniles.

Group density, disease, and season shape territory size and overlap of social carnivores.

The spatial organization of a population can influence the spread of information, behaviour and pathogens. Group territory size and territory overlap and components of spatial organization, provide key information as these metrics may be indicators of habitat quality, resource dispersion, contact rates and environmental risk (e.g. indirectly transmitted pathogens). Furthermore, sociality and behaviour can also shape space use, and subsequently, how space use and habitat quality together impact demography. Our study aims to identify factors shaping the spatial organization of wildlife populations and assess the impact of epizootics on space use. We further aim to explore the mechanisms by which disease perturbations could cause changes in spatial organization. Here we assessed the seasonal spatial organization of Serengeti lions and Yellowstone wolves at the group level. We use network analysis to describe spatial organization and connectivity of social groups. We then examine the factors predicting mean territory size and mean territory overlap for each population using generalized additive models. We demonstrate that lions and wolves were similar in that group-level factors, such as number of groups and shaped spatial organization more than population-level factors, such as population density. Factors shaping territory size were slightly different than factors shaping territory overlap; for example, wolf pack size was an important predictor of territory overlap, but not territory size. Lion spatial networks were more highly connected, while wolf spatial networks varied seasonally. We found that resource dispersion may be more important for driving territory size and overlap for wolves than for lions. Additionally, canine distemper epizootics may have altered lion spatial organization, highlighting the importance of including infectious disease epizootics in studies of behavioural and movement ecology. We provide insight about when we might expect to observe the impacts of resource dispersion, disease perturbations, and other ecological factors on spatial organization. Our work highlights the importance of monitoring and managing social carnivore populations at the group level. Future research should elucidate the complex relationships between demographics, social and spatial structure, abiotic and biotic conditions and pathogen infections.

Identifying Candidate Genetic Markers of CDV Cross-Species Pathogenicity in African Lions.

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a multi-host pathogen with variable clinical outcomes of infection across and within species. We used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to search for viral markers correlated with clinical distemper in African lions. To identify candidate markers, we first documented single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) differentiating CDV strains associated with different clinical outcomes in lions in East Africa. We then conducted evolutionary analyses on WGS from all global CDV lineages to identify loci subject to selection. SNPs that both differentiated East African strains and were under selection were mapped to a phylogenetic tree representing global CDV diversity to assess if candidate markers correlated with documented outbreaks of clinical distemper in lions (n = 3). Of 54 SNPs differentiating East African strains, ten were under positive or episodic diversifying selection and 20 occurred in the clinical strain despite strong purifying selection at those loci. Candidate markers were in functional domains of the RNP complex (n = 19), the matrix protein (n = 4), on CDV glycoproteins (n = 5), and on the V protein (n = 1). We found mutations at two loci in common between sequences from three CDV outbreaks of clinical distemper in African lions; one in the signaling lymphocytic activation molecule receptor (SLAM)-binding region of the hemagglutinin protein and another in the catalytic center of phosphodiester bond formation on the large polymerase protein. These results suggest convergent evolution at these sites may have a functional role in clinical distemper outbreaks in African lions and uncover potential novel barriers to pathogenicity in this species.

Mixed-species groups of Serengeti grazers: a test of the stress gradient hypothesis.

Understanding the role of species interactions within communities is a central focus of ecology. A key challenge is to understand variation in species interactions along environmental gradients. The stress gradient hypothesis posits that positive interactions increase and competitive interactions decrease with increasing consumer pressure or environmental stress. This hypothesis has received extensive attention in plant community ecology, but only a handful of tests in animals. Furthermore, few empirical studies have examined multiple co-occurring stressors. Here we test predictions of the stress gradient hypothesis using the occurrence of mixed-species groups in six common grazing ungulate species within the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem. We use mixed-species groups as a proxy for potential positive interactions because they may enhance protection from predators or increase access to high-quality forage. Alternatively, competition for resources may limit the formation of mixed-species groups. Using more than 115,000 camera trap observations collected over 5 yr, we found that mixed-species groups were more likely to occur in risky areas (i.e., areas closer to lion vantage points and in woodland habitat where lions hunt preferentially) and during time periods when resource levels were high. These results are consistent with the interpretation that stress from high predation risk may contribute to the formation of mixed-species groups, but that competition for resources may prevent their formation when food availability is low. Our results are consistent with support for the stress gradient hypothesis in animals along a consumer pressure gradient while identifying the potential influence of a co-occurring stressor, thus providing a link between research in plant community ecology on the stress gradient hypothesis, and research in animal ecology on trade-offs between foraging and risk in landscapes of fear.

Cross-species transmission and evolutionary dynamics of canine distemper virus during a spillover in African lions of Serengeti National Park.

The outcome of pathogen spillover from a reservoir to a novel host population can range from a "dead-end" when there is no onward transmission in the recipient population, to epidemic spread and even establishment in new hosts. Understanding the evolutionary epidemiology of spillover events leading to discrete outcomes in novel hosts is key to predicting risk and can lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms of emergence. Here we use a Bayesian phylodynamic approach to examine cross-species transmission and evolutionary dynamics during a canine distemper virus (CDV) spillover event causing clinical disease and population decline in an African lion population (Panthera leo) in the Serengeti Ecological Region between 1993 and 1994. Using 21 near-complete viral genomes from four species we found that this large-scale outbreak was likely  ignited by a single cross-species spillover event from a canid reservoir to noncanid hosts <1 year before disease detection and explosive spread of CDV in lions. Cross-species transmission from other noncanid species probably fuelled the high prevalence of CDV across spatially structured lion prides. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) could have acted as the proximate source of CDV exposure in lions. We report 13 nucleotide substitutions segregating CDV strains found in canids and noncanids. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that virus evolution played a role in CDV emergence in noncanid hosts following spillover during the outbreak, suggest that host barriers to clinical infection can limit outcomes of CDV spillover in novel host species.

How to make more from exposure data? An integrated machine learning pipeline to predict pathogen exposure.

Predicting infectious disease dynamics is a central challenge in disease ecology. Models that can assess which individuals are most at risk of being exposed to a pathogen not only provide valuable insights into disease transmission and dynamics but can also guide management interventions. Constructing such models for wild animal populations, however, is particularly challenging; often only serological data are available on a subset of individuals and nonlinear relationships between variables are common. Here we provide a guide to the latest advances in statistical machine learning to construct pathogen-risk models that automatically incorporate complex nonlinear relationships with minimal statistical assumptions from ecological data with missing data. Our approach compares multiple machine learning algorithms in a unified environment to find the model with the best predictive performance and uses game theory to better interpret results. We apply this framework on two major pathogens that infect African lions: canine distemper virus (CDV) and feline parvovirus. Our modelling approach provided enhanced predictive performance compared to more traditional approaches, as well as new insights into disease risks in a wild population. We were able to efficiently capture and visualize strong nonlinear patterns, as well as model complex interactions between variables in shaping exposure risk from CDV and feline parvovirus. For example, we found that lions were more likely to be exposed to CDV at a young age but only in low rainfall years. When combined with our data calibration approach, our framework helped us to answer questions about risk of pathogen exposure that are difficult to address with previous methods. Our framework not only has the potential to aid in predicting disease risk in animal populations, but also can be used to build robust predictive models suitable for other ecological applications such as modelling species distribution or diversity patterns.

Novel smacoviruses identified in the faeces of two wild felids: North American bobcat and African lion.

Smacoviruses are small circular single-stranded DNA viruses that appear to be prevalent in faeces of a range of animals and have also been found in a few insect species. In this study, we report the first viral genomes from faeces of free-roaming wild felids on two continents. Two smacoviruses were recovered from the faeces of two North American bobcats (Lynx rufus), and one was recovered from an African lion (Panthera leo). All three genomes are genetically different, sharing 59-69% genome-wide sequence identity to other smacoviruses. These are the first full smacovirus genome sequences associated with a large top-end feline predator, and their presence in these samples suggests that feline faeces are a natural niche for the organisms that these viruses infect.

QUANTIFYING THE SEVERITY OF GIRAFFE SKIN DISEASE VIA PHOTOGRAMMETRY ANALYSIS OF CAMERA TRAP DATA.

Developing techniques to quantify the spread and severity of diseases afflicting wildlife populations is important for disease ecology, animal ecology, and conservation. Giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) are in the midst of a dramatic decline, but it is not known whether disease is playing an important role in the broad-scale population reductions. A skin disorder referred to as giraffe skin disease (GSD) was recorded in 1995 in one giraffe population in Uganda. Since then, GSD has been detected in 13 populations in seven African countries, but good descriptions of the severity of this disease are not available. We photogrammetrically analyzed camera trap images from both Ruaha and Serengeti National parks in Tanzania to quantify GSD severity. Giraffe skin disease afflicts the limbs of giraffes in Tanzania, and we quantified severity by measuring the vertical length of the GSD lesion in relation to the total leg length. Applying the Jenks natural breaks algorithm to the lesion proportions that we derived, we classified individual giraffes into disease categories (none, mild, moderate, and severe). Scaling up to the population level, we predicted the proportion of the Ruaha and Serengeti giraffe populations with mild, moderate, and severe GSD. This study serves to demonstrate that camera traps presented an informative platform for examinations of skin disease ecology.

Endemic infection can shape exposure to novel pathogens: Pathogen co-occurrence networks in the Serengeti lions.

Pathogens are embedded in a complex network of microparasites that can collectively or individually alter disease dynamics and outcomes. Endemic pathogens that infect an individual in the first years of life, for example, can either facilitate or compete with subsequent pathogens thereby exacerbating or ameliorating morbidity and mortality. Pathogen associations are ubiquitous but poorly understood, particularly in wild populations. We report here on 10 years of serological and molecular data in African lions, leveraging comprehensive demographic and behavioural data to test if endemic pathogens shape subsequent infection by epidemic pathogens. We combine network and community ecology approaches to assess broad network structure and characterise associations between pathogens across spatial and temporal scales. We found significant non-random structure in the lion-pathogen co-occurrence network and identified both positive and negative associations between endemic and epidemic pathogens. Our results provide novel insights on the complex associations underlying pathogen co-occurrence networks.

Transmission ecology of canine parvovirus in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system.

Understanding multi-host pathogen maintenance and transmission dynamics is critical for disease control. However, transmission dynamics remain enigmatic largely because they are difficult to observe directly, particularly in wildlife. Here, we investigate the transmission dynamics of canine parvovirus (CPV) using state-space modelling of 20 years of CPV serology data from domestic dogs and African lions in the Serengeti ecosystem. We show that, although vaccination reduces the probability of infection in dogs, and despite indirect enhancement of population seropositivity as a result of vaccine shedding, the vaccination coverage achieved has been insufficient to prevent CPV from becoming widespread. CPV is maintained by the dog population and has become endemic with approximately 3.5-year cycles and prevalence reaching approximately 80%. While the estimated prevalence in lions is lower, peaks of infection consistently follow those in dogs. Dogs exposed to CPV are also more likely to become infected with a second multi-host pathogen, canine distemper virus. However, vaccination can weaken this coupling, raising questions about the value of monovalent versus polyvalent vaccines against these two pathogens. Our findings highlight the need to consider both pathogen- and host-level community interactions when seeking to understand the dynamics of multi-host pathogens and their implications for conservation, disease surveillance and control programmes.

The diversity of population responses to environmental change.

The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.